Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-17 00:24Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that despite the rebound of the US dollar index since October, the RMB exchange rate has shown strong resilience. [1] International Balance of Payments - In the third quarter of this year, China's exports to non-US economies performed well, supporting export performance and leading to a rebound in the current account surplus. [1] - Foreign direct investment (FDI) into China showed a quarter-on-quarter decline, while outbound direct investment accelerated compared to the second quarter. [1] - There has been significant outflow of foreign capital from bond holdings, indicating increased volatility in capital flows within securities accounts. [1] Future Outlook - The pace of expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains a key short-term factor influencing the US dollar index. [1] - In the fourth quarter, China's export growth is expected to decline on a quarter-on-quarter basis, which may weaken the current account's support for the RMB exchange rate. [1] - However, policies related to investment and consumption are gradually being implemented, and the central bank's stable exchange rate policy is expected to maintain a balanced approach, leading to a gradual alignment of the RMB exchange rate towards the midpoint. [1]