中信证券：银行股低估值隐含的价值空间依旧显著 建议积极布局

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a marginal slowdown in the expansion of bank balance sheets in October, primarily due to early government bond issuance and a continued weak demand for credit from the real economy. The focus on liquidity management will increase as the year-end approaches, while the industry’s interest margins have shown initial stabilization in Q3, with regulatory attention on profitability and pricing factors expected to improve in the future [1][2][4]. Group 1: Financial Data and Trends - In October, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing (社融) was 8.5%, slightly down from 8.7% in September [2]. - Government bonds saw a year-on-year increase of 3.72 trillion yuan in the first ten months, but in October, there was a decrease of 560.2 billion yuan compared to the previous year, attributed to the early issuance this year [2]. - The demand for credit from the real economy remains weak, with a decrease of 154 billion yuan in RMB loans in October, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 311.9 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Deposit Trends - In October, there was a seasonal shift in deposits, with a decrease of 1.34 trillion yuan in resident deposits and an increase of 1.85 trillion yuan in non-bank deposits, indicating a shift of funds towards non-bank financial institutions [3]. - Corporate deposits also showed weakness, with a decline of 1.09 trillion yuan in October, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 355.3 billion yuan, primarily due to weak credit generation [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Focus - Regulatory bodies continue to emphasize the importance of stabilizing bank interest margins, with the central bank highlighting the need for a reasonable interest rate relationship to support banks' ability to sustain economic support [4]. - The Deputy Governor of the central bank stressed the need to avoid excessive competition within the financial industry to maintain reasonable profitability, indicating ongoing regulatory scrutiny on banks' interest margins and profit growth [4].