国常会部署“促消费稳投资” 新一轮降准降息有望实施

Economic Overview - The slowdown in external demand, weakened domestic demand, and high base effects from the previous year have led to fluctuations in major economic indicators since the fourth quarter, necessitating an increase in macroeconomic policy support [1] - In October, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 4.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from September; retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from September [1] - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 408.914 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.7% [1] Government Policy and Economic Measures - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to discuss the implementation of "two major" constructions, focusing on enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods and promoting consumption policies [1][6] - The government aims to rationally arrange project construction and fund disbursement, strengthen project and fund matching, and encourage more private capital participation [1][6] - The "two major" constructions involve significant national strategic implementations and key area safety capability enhancements, with 800 billion yuan allocated for 1,459 projects by 2025 [6][7] Consumption Trends - Despite a decline in industrial, consumption, and investment data, structural highlights remain, with service consumption becoming an important growth point [3] - From January to October, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.3%, with service retail sales growing by 5.3% [3] - Digital and green consumption are expanding, significantly boosting overall consumption growth, with online retail sales rising by 9.6% year-on-year [4] Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment has shown a rare cumulative year-on-year negative value for two consecutive months, primarily due to a slowdown in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investments [5] - The investment growth slowdown is attributed to various factors, including a complex external environment, fierce domestic market competition, and weak corporate profitability [4][5] - The government has introduced measures to stimulate private investment and has accelerated the deployment of new policy financial tools to support effective investment [7] Supply and Demand Adaptability - Enhancing supply and demand adaptability is seen as a key measure to release consumption potential and facilitate economic circulation [8][10] - The government emphasizes the need for consumption upgrades to lead industrial upgrades, aiming for a dynamic balance between supply and demand [9][10] - The interaction between new supply and new demand is expected to promote a virtuous cycle of potential consumption and effective investment, enhancing the reliability of domestic circulation [10]