2025年美联储货币政策框架演进： 框架回归、政策分歧及经验启示

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework has evolved significantly since the establishment of the "Consensus Statement" in 2012, with major revisions occurring in 2020 and 2025 to adapt to changing economic conditions [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Establishment of the Framework - The "Consensus Statement" was first established in 2012, laying the foundation for inflation targeting and balancing dual mandates of maximum employment and price stability [2]. - Key components included a commitment to transparency, proactive policy measures, a defined inflation target of 2% for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and a focus on maximum employment levels [2]. 2020 Revision - The 2020 revision introduced an average inflation targeting framework and employment shortfall rules to address the constraints posed by the effective lower bound (ELB) on interest rates [3]. - This revision marked a shift from traditional inflation targeting to a long-term average approach, allowing for temporary overshooting of inflation targets [3]. 2025 Revision - The 2025 revision marked a return to a more balanced approach, discarding the average inflation targeting and employment shortfall rules established in 2020 [4]. - The updated framework re-emphasized the dual mandate, reinstating the original inflation targeting strategy and removing the emphasis on the ELB as a defining economic characteristic [4]. Underlying Logic of Framework Evolution - The evolution of the "Consensus Statement" reflects a responsive approach to the primary economic challenges of specific periods, adapting to the dynamic economic landscape [5][10]. - The 2025 adjustments were a response to significant changes in the economic environment post-pandemic, including global supply chain disruptions and rising inflation [10][11]. Implications for Future Policy - The revisions indicate a long-term focus on normalizing monetary policy while balancing short-term risks related to employment and inflation [13][16]. - The return to traditional inflation targeting is expected to enhance inflation expectation management and improve policy transparency [16]. Lessons for Domestic Policy Frameworks - Continuous optimization of monetary policy frameworks is essential to ensure alignment with the evolving real economy [18]. - Future frameworks should be forward-looking and adaptable to structural changes in the economy, rather than relying solely on historical data [18].