诺安基金【海外点评】：美国政府结束停摆，市场再定价美联储12月决议

Group 1: Market Overview - Global asset performance this week shows commodities leading with a 1.67% increase, followed by stocks at 0.41%, while bonds fell by 0.11% and REITs dropped by 1.04% [3] - European stock markets rebounded, with the STOXX index up 1.77% and the French CAC40 rising 2.77%, while the US stock market remained volatile [4] - Emerging markets saw mixed results, with Brazil's IBOVESPA index hitting a record high with a 2.39% increase, while China's A-shares faced a decline of 1.08% [4] Group 2: Commodity Insights - Energy and metal prices increased, with Brent crude oil rising 1.19% to $64.39 per barrel and gold prices up 2.07% to $4,084.06 per ounce [5][10] - The US commercial crude oil inventory rose significantly by 6.41 million barrels, indicating a low inventory level compared to the past five years [9] - OPEC and other agencies have raised their 2025 global oil supply forecasts, predicting an increase in production [8] Group 3: Economic and Policy Developments - The US government shutdown has ended, with a temporary funding bill signed to keep operations running until January 30, 2026, but the shutdown is expected to reduce Q4 GDP by 1.5% [6] - Federal Reserve officials expressed hawkish views, with market expectations for a rate cut in December dropping from 66.2% to 43.2% [6] - The recent increase in mortgage delinquencies and stock market volatility may support the case for a rate cut in December [7] Group 4: REITs and Real Estate - The global REITs index fell by 0.83%, with healthcare and office sectors showing better performance compared to retail and industrial sectors [11] - US REITs reported better-than-expected revenue and profit growth for Q3, particularly in the office sector [12] - The current low-interest-rate environment is favorable for REITs, which possess both equity and bond characteristics [12] Group 5: Hong Kong Market Analysis - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.92% and the technology index declining by 1.80% [13] - Despite the index performance, there was active trading with a single-day turnover of HKD 209.6 billion, indicating investor confidence [14] - High-dividend assets are favored, with the Hang Seng high-dividend index showing a yield of 6%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield [14]