智通财经网·2025-11-17 02:10Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates an upward adjustment in Tencent Holdings' (00700) adjusted EPS growth forecast for 2025-2027, with expected growth rates of 21%/18%/9%, and a target price increase to HKD 729, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Tencent's total revenue increased by 15% year-on-year to RMB 192.87 billion, exceeding expectations by 4%, driven by gaming (+23%), social (+4%), marketing (+21%), and financial enterprise services (+10%) [2] - Gross profit rose by 22% year-on-year, outpacing revenue growth, with a gross margin improvement of approximately 3.3 percentage points to 56.4%, attributed to high-margin businesses such as domestic games, video accounts, and WeChat search, along with ongoing cost optimization in cloud services [2] - Adjusted EPS reached RMB 7.58, a 19% year-on-year increase, surpassing expectations by 6% [2] Group 2: Operational Highlights - Domestic game revenue grew by 15% year-on-year, benefiting from titles like Delta Action, Valorant, and Honor of Kings; overseas game revenue surged by 43%, driven by Brawl Stars, new games, and studio mergers [3] - Social revenue increased by 5% year-on-year, supported by video account live streaming and paid music services [3] - Marketing revenue rose by 21% year-on-year, enhanced by new advertising products and AI-driven advertising effectiveness [3] - Financial technology revenue experienced high single-digit growth, with accelerated growth in commercial payment transaction volume; enterprise services saw double-digit growth, driven by merchant technology service fees and significant growth in cloud storage data management [3] Group 3: Outlook and Valuation - The report anticipates that AI technology investments will support revenue growth across Tencent's product lines, with expected gaming revenue growth of 21%/9% and advertising growth of 19%/13% for 2025/26, indicating potential for further upward adjustments [4] - Capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue is expected to be below 10% in 2025, although the absolute value is projected to exceed RMB 80 billion, primarily for product iteration and upgrades, rather than focusing on computing power as a core business [4] - The company is positioned to leverage its leading traffic supply in the consumer sector for AI application implementation [4]