2025年美联储货币政策框架变了什么？专家拆解→

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework has evolved significantly since the establishment of the "Consensus Statement" in 2012, with major revisions in 2020 and 2025, reflecting responses to changing economic conditions and challenges [1][2][4]. Group 1: Evolution of the Framework - The "Consensus Statement" has undergone two major revisions since its inception: the first in 2020 introduced an average inflation targeting and employment gap rules, while the second in 2025 reverted to a more balanced dual mandate approach [2][3]. - The 2025 update removed the emphasis on the effective lower bound (ELB) as a defining feature of the economic landscape and abandoned the average inflation targeting strategy, returning to a traditional symmetric inflation target [3][4]. Group 2: Underlying Logic of the Framework - The evolution of the Federal Reserve's framework is a dynamic response to the primary economic contradictions of specific stages, adapting to the economic environment post-2008 financial crisis and the subsequent low-growth, low-inflation context [4]. - The 2025 revision is a response to the post-pandemic economic landscape, characterized by global supply chain disruptions and structural labor market shortages, indicating a shift away from the low-inflation era [4]. Group 3: Short-term vs Long-term Policy Divergence - The revised framework shows a clear divergence in the Federal Reserve's short-term and long-term policy orientations, balancing risks associated with economic cycles [4]. - Long-term strategies focus on normalizing policy tools and anchoring inflation at a 2% target, while short-term strategies prioritize employment stability and risk management [4]. Group 4: Implications for Domestic Policy - The evolution of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework offers valuable insights for domestic reforms, emphasizing the need for continuous optimization of monetary policy to align with the dynamic nature of the real economy [5][6]. - It highlights the importance of forward-looking approaches in policy design, avoiding linear extrapolation from past data, and ensuring adaptability to structural changes in the economy [6]. - The framework should be tailored to local economic characteristics, considering factors such as development stage, economic structure, and financial market maturity [6].