GDP六个季度来首降 日本大规模经济刺激计划呼之欲出

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy is experiencing a contraction, which may prompt Prime Minister Kishida to implement a large-scale stimulus plan, despite the Bank of Japan's intention to raise interest rates in the coming months [1][3]. Economic Performance - Japan's real GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 1.8% for the third quarter, marking the first decline in six quarters, although this was better than economists' median forecast of -2.4% [1][3]. - Private residential investment and exports were the main factors dragging down overall output, aligning with market expectations [3]. - Consumer spending, which accounts for the largest share of GDP, remained nearly flat and failed to offset the economic weakness [3]. Government Response - The GDP data may strengthen the Kishida administration's position to boost fiscal spending to stimulate the economy, with an economic plan expected to be announced soon [3][6]. - Economists anticipate that the scale of the economic stimulus will slightly exceed last year's 13.9 trillion yen (approximately 89.9 billion USD) [6]. Inflation and Consumer Behavior - Private consumption, which constitutes over half of the economy, only increased by 0.1%, indicating that households are controlling discretionary spending amid high living costs and stagnant real wages [6]. - Core inflation in Japan has consistently met or exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for three and a half years [6]. Business Investment - Despite pressures from tariffs leading to lower profit expectations, large enterprises plan to increase capital investment this year, with capital spending growing by 1.0%, surpassing expectations of a slight decline [6]. - The strong capital spending reflects robust corporate confidence amid labor shortages and market competition, suggesting that wage growth momentum is likely to remain stable [6]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan is expected to announce its next policy decision on December 19, with half of the observers anticipating a rate hike, and nearly all economists predicting action by January at the latest [7]. - The economic outlook from the Bank of Japan is not expected to change significantly, with a baseline expectation of a rate hike in December, although a delay until January is possible [7].