通胀撑腰澳联储 澳元0.65关口博弈美元

Group 1 - The core focus of the current AUD/USD exchange rate is on the divergent policy paths of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) [1] - The RBA decided to maintain the cash rate at 3.6% in November, influenced by a surprising rebound in Q3 inflation, which rose to 3.2% [1] - Market expectations have shifted, with predictions suggesting that the next rate hike from the RBA may not occur until early 2027, indicating an end to the rate-cutting cycle, which supports the Australian dollar [1] Group 2 - The Fed is currently facing a "data vacuum" following a government shutdown, with recent hawkish signals from Powell reducing market bets on a 25 basis point rate cut in December [1] - The USD index is operating within a short-term upward channel of 98-102, which, combined with narrowing AUD/USD interest rate differentials and the safe-haven nature of the USD, exerts strong pressure on the Australian dollar's rebound potential [1] Group 3 - Technically, the AUD/USD is in a weak consolidation phase, with a key range of 0.6500-0.6550, where 0.6500 serves as support and 0.6550 as resistance [2] - The moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, and while the MACD shows narrowing green bars below the zero line, it has not yet crossed over, indicating limited upward momentum [2] - Future movements will depend on U.S. data and Australian inflation; weak U.S. data could help the AUD reach 0.6550, while strong data may push it below 0.6500 to 0.6460 [2]