一周流动性观察 | 央行维稳资金的态度未变 税期期间隔夜资金成本或控制在1.55%以内

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is actively managing liquidity through various monetary policy tools, indicating a commitment to maintaining stable financial conditions amid multiple market disturbances [1][3][4] Group 1: Monetary Policy Operations - On November 17, the PBOC conducted a 283 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation and an 800 billion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 963.1 billion yuan [1] - The total net injection from the PBOC's open market operations for the week of November 10-14 was 626.2 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing liquidity support despite earlier large-scale net withdrawals [1][2] - The PBOC's continued net injections and the announcement of an 800 billion yuan 6-month buyout reverse repurchase operation suggest a sustained effort to stabilize the funding environment [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The interbank funding rates, particularly DR001, experienced fluctuations, initially rising to 1.51% before stabilizing around 1.3% following the PBOC's interventions [1][2] - Analysts expect that the central bank's supportive stance will help mitigate the impact of tax payment periods and government bond repayments on liquidity, with overnight funding costs likely to remain below 1.55% during the tax period [3] - The average DR001 rate for November has risen to 1.37%, aligning with the central tendency observed since the third quarter, indicating a controlled approach to managing liquidity [2][3] Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The PBOC's recent monetary policy report emphasizes the need for a coordinated approach between monetary and fiscal policies to support economic growth and maintain reasonable growth in social financing and money supply [3][4] - The report signals a strong commitment to stabilizing growth through enhanced credit support and improved interest rate transmission mechanisms, which may lead to a decrease in overall financing costs [3][4] - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's focus on maintaining liquidity and supporting growth reflects a shift towards a more proactive monetary policy stance, potentially paving the way for future easing measures [4]