【债市观察】债市低波横盘交投情绪谨慎 十债困于1.80%

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced marginal tightening in liquidity last week, with the 10-year government bond yield closing at 1.805%, showing a slight decrease of 0.1 basis points, and the overall market remains in a sideways trend awaiting clearer signals [1][4]. Market Review - The yield changes for various maturities from November 7 to November 14, 2025, were as follows: 1-year (+0.59 BP), 2-year (-0.25 BP), 3-year (-0.52 BP), 5-year (-0.57 BP), 7-year (-0.1 BP), 10-year (-0.02 BP), 30-year (-1 BP), and 50-year (+4.8 BP) [2][3]. - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated between 1.8% and 1.8125% during the week, ultimately closing at 1.805% [4]. Primary Market - A total of 100 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 726.87 billion yuan, including 6 government bonds worth 309.32 billion yuan, 21 policy bank bonds worth 132.48 billion yuan, and 73 local government bonds worth 285.07 billion yuan [7]. - For the upcoming week (November 17 to November 21), 60 bonds are planned for issuance, totaling 400.66 billion yuan [7]. International Market - The U.S. government shutdown ended, leading to concerns about economic impacts and a downward adjustment in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.15%, an increase of approximately 5 basis points for the week [8][10]. Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a total of 1.122 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos last week, resulting in a net injection of 626.2 billion yuan [12]. - The PBOC plans to conduct an 800 billion yuan reverse repo operation on November 17 to maintain liquidity in the banking system [12]. Institutional Perspectives - Tianfeng Securities noted that the bond market remains in a narrow trading range, with both bulls and bears exercising caution. The potential for a seasonal rally at year-end may not materialize due to uncertainties in the banking sector and insurance liabilities [19]. - Huaxi Securities suggested that with financial data indicating a need for broader monetary easing, the likelihood of a rate cut by year-end or early next year is increasing, with the possibility of the PBOC prioritizing bond purchases to create a more accommodative environment [20]. - Industrial perspectives from Xingye Securities indicated that the current state of the bond market may not change soon, and investors should remain patient for improved opportunities [21].