Group 1 - UBS reports that China Hongqiao (01378) is expected to benefit continuously from a favorable environment of limited supply and rising prices, leading to an 11% increase in net profit forecast for 2026 and a 16% increase for 2027 [1] - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating on China Hongqiao and raises the target price from HKD 28 to HKD 38.6 [1] Group 2 - The supply-side constraints are identified as a key logic, with global primary aluminum demand projected to grow at 4% annually from 2026 to 2027, while supply growth is expected to be only 1%-2%, potentially leading to a market shortage [2] - Domestic aluminum production capacity is strictly controlled, capped at 45.2 million tons per year, with current utilization rates exceeding 98%, nearing policy limits [2] - New capacity additions are limited, with only Tianshan Aluminum's 200,000 tons per year expansion and a 350,000 tons per year project in Zhalute planned for 2026, and no new capacity planned for 2027 [2] Group 3 - UBS has raised aluminum price forecasts for the next two years, with the 2026 forecast increased by 5% to CNY 22,000 per ton and the 2027 forecast increased by 7% to CNY 23,000 per ton [3] - The London Metal Exchange aluminum price forecast has also been raised by approximately 15%, driven by increased demand for aluminum as a substitute due to rising copper prices [3]
供应缺口支撑铝价上行 瑞银上调中国宏桥(01378)目标价至38.6港元