大摩乐观预计：恒指2026年上看34700点

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's latest outlook report indicates that after a significant rise in the Chinese stock market in 2025, it is expected to enter a "steady development" phase in 2026, with limited upside potential for major indices due to moderate earnings growth and relatively high valuations [1][2]. Index Targets - Hang Seng Index (HSI) target for the end of 2026: - Base case: 27,500 points - Optimistic case: 34,700 points - Pessimistic case: 18,700 points [1] - Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) target for the end of 2026: - Base case: 9,700 points - Optimistic case: 12,190 points - Pessimistic case: 6,670 points [1] - CSI 300 Index target for the end of 2026: - Base case: 4,840 points - Optimistic case: 6,010 points - Pessimistic case: 3,470 points [1] - MSCI China Index target for the end of 2026: - Base case: 90 - Optimistic case: 114 - Pessimistic case: 58 [1] Market Performance - The MSCI China Index and Hang Seng Index have both risen over 30% this year, ranking among the top global markets, reflecting positive investor expectations regarding improvements in the Chinese economy and corporate earnings structure [1]. Challenges Ahead - For the market to break through current levels, it must address several factors: - The quality and sustainability of corporate earnings remain to be observed - Significant valuation increases over the past 12 months limit further expansion - Increased global macroeconomic uncertainties, including interest rate paths, geopolitical issues, and changes in external demand [1]