Floating Oil Storage Surge Puts Market Balance on Edge

Core Insights - A shadow fleet of sanctioned oil from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela is growing, potentially impacting global oil prices depending on whether these barrels find buyers [1][8] Group 1: Current Situation of Sanctioned Oil - Russian oil shipments are facing cancellations from Chinese and Indian buyers, who are shifting to Middle Eastern and American oil while seeking ways to bypass sanctions [2] - Iranian oil in floating storage has doubled to over 36 million barrels from August to November, while deliveries to China have decreased to less than 1.2 million barrels daily [3] - Floating storage in Asia has increased by 20 million barrels over the past two months, reaching a total of 53 million barrels, primarily from sanctioned producers [4] Group 2: Floating Storage Data - Analysts indicate that the increase in shadow crude volumes in Asia is due to high volumes at sea and difficulties in processing arrivals at Shandong independent refineries [5] - OilX reports that floating storage in Asia rose to 70 million barrels by the end of October, up from 50 million barrels in mid-October [6] - Vortexa estimates that Iranian crude at sea totals 161 million barrels, a 22.5 million barrel increase since September, while Venezuelan crude on water is at 72.3 million barrels, up by 6.6 million barrels [7] Group 3: Potential Market Impact - The presence of these sanctioned barrels could complicate the global supply situation, as their sale would exacerbate an already excessive supply, while remaining stranded could positively affect prices [8]