日本经济六季度首次萎缩 日本央行加息前景蒙阴

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Japan's economy is experiencing a temporary setback, with a 1.8% year-on-year decline in GDP for Q3, marking the first contraction in six quarters, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports [1] - Japan's Q3 GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, which was better than the market expectation of a 0.6% contraction, while the revised growth for Q2 was 2.3% [1] - Exports were the main drag on the economy, with net external demand reducing growth by 0.2 percentage points, significantly affected by a 15% tariff on Japanese goods imposed by the U.S. starting in September [1] - Private consumption increased by only 0.1%, down from 0.4% in the previous quarter, as high prices suppressed spending willingness; however, capital expenditure rose by 1.0%, exceeding the expected 0.3% [1] - The Japanese government is planning a stimulus package of approximately 17 trillion yen to improve household income and support consumption next year [1] Group 2 - From a technical analysis perspective, the USD/JPY exchange rate maintains a bullish structure in the short term, with clear resistance levels above [2] - The USD/JPY rebounded strongly from 153.60 and broke through the resistance zone of 154.45–154.50, indicating potential for further upward movement [2] - If the USD/JPY effectively breaks the psychological level of 155.00, it could open up further upward space towards 155.60 or even 156.00 [2] - The support level at 154.00 remains crucial for maintaining the bullish structure; a drop below 153.60 could lead to a further decline towards 153.00 [2]