【央行圆桌汇】美联储降息路径存争议（2025年11月17日）

Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The People's Bank of China aims to maintain the RMB exchange rate at a stable level while implementing moderately loose monetary policy and enhancing the monetary policy framework [1] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials express varying stances on monetary policy, with some advocating for faster rate cuts to address economic downturn risks [2] - The European Central Bank acknowledges that rising interest rates may exacerbate perceived inequality, particularly affecting low-income households [3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - A Reuters survey indicates that 84 out of 105 economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, with some predicting further cuts in early 2026 [5] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Federal Reserve may soon announce "reserve management purchases," which could be interpreted as a new round of quantitative easing [5] - Guggenheim's Chief Investment Officer suggests that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates again in December due to economic slowdown indicators [5] Group 3: International Developments - European financial stability officials are exploring the integration of non-U.S. central bank dollar reserves to establish an independent liquidity support mechanism [3] - The new Japanese government pressures the Bank of Japan to delay interest rate hikes until January to align with a large-scale economic stimulus plan [3] - The Bank of England reduces the maximum authorized scale of its Asset Purchase Facility from £619.7 billion to £555 billion [4]