终端需求改善不足 PS价格创出新低

Group 1 - The overall demand for PS terminals in 2025 is expected to improve insufficiently due to multiple factors such as tariff policies, subsidy policies, and consumer willingness and ability being hindered, leading to a gradual negative feedback to various links in the industry chain [1] - The PS industry is experiencing a continuous decline in costs, resulting in a downward pressure on prices, with PS prices hitting new lows in 2025 [1][2] - As of early November 2025, the price of ordinary toluene in East China has dropped to 6,975 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decline of 28.09%, with the low-end price reaching a historical low of 6,850 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - In 2025, the domestic PS production capacity is expected to increase by 16.52% year-on-year, with a production increase of 5.74%, leading to a total domestic PS capacity of approximately 8.04 million tons by the end of the year [1][2] - From January to September 2025, China's PS export volume reached 241,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 49.44%, with total exports expected to exceed 300,000 tons by the end of the year [2] - The white goods industry, a major downstream consumer of PS, has shown effective demand for PS in the first half of 2025, but overall demand improvement is insufficient, leading to downward pressure on PS prices [3] Group 3 - The PS market in China is expected to show a trend of low-level rebound followed by oscillating declines in 2026, with average prices anticipated to drop compared to 2025 [4] - The international crude oil price is expected to continue to decline, impacting the prices of bulk chemical products and upstream materials, which may lead to a weakening of cost support for PS [4] - The supply side of PS is expected to remain under pressure in 2026 due to the concentrated release of new production capacity, while terminal demand improvement is expected to be moderate [4]