TrendForce集邦咨询：存储器价格攀升冲击消费市场 下修2026年全球智能手机及笔电的生产出货预测

Core Insights - The global market is expected to face uncertainty in 2026, with inflation continuing to disrupt consumer market performance and a strong upward cycle in memory prices leading to increased overall costs and potential price hikes for end products [1] Smartphone Market - TrendForce has revised down its 2026 global smartphone production and shipment forecast from a growth of 0.1% to a decline of 2% due to rising memory costs [1] - DRAM prices are expected to rise significantly, with a projected increase of over 75% year-on-year in Q4 2025, leading to an estimated 8-10% increase in BOM costs for smartphones [2] - The low-end smartphone segment is particularly vulnerable, with brands likely to reduce the proportion of low-end models and increase prices across their product lines to maintain operations [2] Laptop Market - The laptop market is anticipated to face dual pressures of cost and demand in 2026, with memory components expected to account for over 20% of the BOM cost due to continuous price increases [3] - If brands pass on the increased costs, laptop prices may rise by 5-15%, which could negatively impact demand, especially in the low-price segment where consumers may delay upgrades or turn to the second-hand market [3] - The mid-range market may also see a slowdown in upgrade momentum as both businesses and households extend the lifecycle of their devices [3] Monitor Market - Monitors, which typically use smaller capacity memory, are less directly affected by price increases; however, they may still face indirect impacts if overall PC retail prices rise significantly, leading to a forecasted decline in annual shipments from a slight increase of 0.1% to a decrease of 0.4% [4] BOM Cost Increases - The BOM cost increases for different market segments are projected as follows: High-End (12%), Mid-Range (12%), and Low-End (10%) from Q1 2025 to Q3 2026 [5] - The percentage of DRAM and SSD in BOM costs for Q3 2026 is expected to be 23% for High-End, 21% for Mid-Range, and 20% for Low-End [5]