预计年底前国内豆粕现货价格或偏强震荡运行

Core Viewpoint - Domestic soybean meal spot prices have stabilized after an increase in early November, with limited overall volatility expected. The outlook suggests a potential strong fluctuation in prices until the end of December due to cost support and easing inventory pressure [1][5]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply of raw soybeans is generally abundant, supporting high operational levels for upstream enterprises, leading to a relaxed supply of spot market goods. As of the first week of November, soybean meal inventory at national crushing enterprises was 963,000 tons, slightly down from the year's peak but still above levels from previous years [3]. - Upstream enterprises have stable production plans, although some face significant inventory pressure, leading to widespread cash flow demands that exert pressure on soybean meal spot prices [3]. - On the demand side, downstream enterprises are cautious in their willingness to take delivery of spot goods, primarily engaging in essential replenishment, resulting in overall weak performance. From November 10 to 13, the total transaction volume of soybean meal for future months reached 448,000 tons [3]. International Market Context - The international market is characterized by a strong production outlook for soybeans, which limits the upward potential for U.S. soybean futures. However, a tightening supply-demand balance year-on-year provides solid bottom support for soybean prices [5]. - In the domestic market, the 13% import tariff on U.S. soybeans restricts commercial buying, while South American soybeans are facing poor crushing margins, leading to a less optimistic outlook for the first quarter's raw material supply [5]. Price Outlook - Overall, the domestic spot market fundamentals remain stable in early November, with narrowed fluctuations in soybean meal prices. The expectation is for a slight upward trend in soybean meal prices until the end of December, with an average price range projected between 3,040 and 3,150 yuan per ton [5].