港口库存同比依然偏高 菜籽粕盘中低位震荡运行

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing a downward trend, particularly in canola meal futures, with significant fluctuations in prices and a notable decrease in inventory levels [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Canola meal futures opened at 2492.00 CNY/ton, with a trading range between 2415.00 CNY and 2514.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.21% [1]. - The total number of canola meal futures warehouse receipts remained stable at 2745 as of November 14, but there has been a cumulative decrease of 6344 receipts over the past month, representing a decline of 69.80% [1]. Group 2: Price Movements - Canadian canola prices for January and March shipments increased by 1 USD/ton, reaching 531 USD/ton and 539 USD/ton, respectively [1]. - The export volume of Canadian canola decreased by 35.67% to 121,200 tons for the week ending November 9, down from 188,400 tons the previous week [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The USDA has revised the 2025/26 U.S. soybean yield estimate down to 53.0 bushels per acre, leading to a total production forecast of 4.253 billion bushels, which is lower than previous estimates [2]. - Domestic canola consumption is under pressure due to limited imports from Canada and a general decline in demand as temperatures drop, impacting aquaculture needs [2]. - The market is currently facing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with expectations of lower canola meal demand due to the availability of soybeans and the competitive advantage of soybean meal [2].