野村亚洲及印度首席经济学家Sonal Varma：从中期来看，我们对亚洲经济持乐观态度

Group 1 - The economic growth outlook for Asia (excluding Japan) is mixed, with strong performance in the technology sector but challenges in the external environment [1] - The technology sector remains resilient due to sustained demand for artificial intelligence and support from the storage chip supercycle, while the non-technology sector remains weak due to limited spillover effects from AI and higher tariffs on labor-intensive industries imposed by the US [1] - Inflation is nearing its bottom, and low inflation may persist due to weak input costs, a negative output gap, and significant imports from China, providing room for policy easing [1] Group 2 - Southeast Asia and India are expected to have some room for interest rate cuts, while other central banks, such as the Bank of Korea, may maintain rates due to concerns over the real estate market [1] - Major downside risks for Asia (excluding Japan) include trade tensions, weak global demand, and aggressive tariffs on semiconductors by the US, while upside risks include successful supply chain diversification and stronger spillover effects from AI investments [1] - The medium-term outlook for the Asian economy remains optimistic, with solid economic fundamentals and new growth drivers such as supply chain shifts, increased AI investment, and accelerated infrastructure development [2] - India, the Philippines, and Malaysia are projected to be among the fastest-growing economies in the last decade [2]