分析师：即使供应过剩，预计OPEC明年不会减产

Core Viewpoint - Despite predictions of a global oil supply surplus potentially leading to further price declines, oil traders do not expect OPEC+ to cut production next year [1][2] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Outlook - A survey of 25 brokers and analysts indicates that nearly two-thirds believe OPEC+ will not reduce output next year, with less than one-third expecting any cuts, marking the first such action in over two years [2] - OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, decided in April to quickly restore previously suspended oil production, surprising the market despite ample supply, aiming to regain market share [2][6] - Only 8 out of 25 respondents in the survey anticipate OPEC+ will limit production next year, with 12 expecting no restrictions unless there is a significant market downturn [6] Group 2: Market Conditions and Price Pressure - Brent crude oil futures have dropped 14% this year to around $64 per barrel, putting financial pressure on OPEC+ members, with some analysts predicting further declines [5][8] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a potential surplus of 4 million barrels per day, a situation not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic, due to weak demand and strong supply from the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana [7] - Energy consulting firms suggest that OPEC+ may need to take action to prevent significant inventory accumulation and price drops [7] Group 3: Strategic Shifts and Future Projections - Analysts believe that OPEC+ is focused on regaining market share rather than cutting production, with expectations that the supply surplus will be smaller than IEA's predictions [8][11] - If OPEC+ can navigate through the weak oil market early next year, they may find themselves in a stronger position by the end of 2026 [8][11] - The shift in strategy may be influenced by geopolitical factors and the need for OPEC+ to adapt to changing market dynamics [6][8]