市场可能交易需求端悲观情绪 沪铝仍有回落空间

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing fluctuations due to various factors including supply chain developments in Guinea and policy proposals in Indonesia, alongside market sentiment influenced by economic data and funding conditions. Group 1: Supply Chain Developments - A Yunnan electrolytic aluminum plant has purchased 0.3 million tons of alumina at a spot price of 2870 CNY per ton, which is a decrease of 20 CNY per ton from the previous transaction, with traders sourcing from Guangxi [1] - A new bauxite mine in Guinea has achieved smooth production and has completed export procedures, with an annual capacity of approximately 10 million tons. This, combined with the recovery of the Nimba mine's shipping port, is expected to increase the shipping volume of imported bauxite from Guinea [1] - Indonesia's Ministry of Industry is proposing two key policies to support the domestic aluminum industry, including incorporating aluminum production companies into a specific natural gas pricing plan and considering a domestic market obligation policy for smelting-grade alumina to ensure raw material supply [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Yide Futures notes that the market is currently driven by funding conditions, with the copper-aluminum ratio widening and significant inflows into the undervalued aluminum sector. However, there are signs of a decrease in long positions as the holding volume in Shanghai aluminum has reached a historical high [2] - Donghai Futures reports a significant drop in Shanghai aluminum prices due to decreased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut and poor domestic economic data. The market may experience further declines, with a focus on support levels around 21700-21800 [3] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with short-term demand appearing weak, but there is potential for policy support to emerge. The current inventory levels are not excessively high, but the market is expected to return to reality as the off-season approaches, leading to potential price corrections [3]