黄金周报｜联储放鹰，金价冲高回落

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by various macroeconomic factors, including Federal Reserve officials' hawkish statements, the end of the U.S. government shutdown, and ongoing global uncertainties, which may support gold prices in the medium to long term [1][5][6]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of November 14, the London spot gold price closed at $4,082.16 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of $81.87 per ounce since November 7, reflecting a rise of 2.05% [1]. - Gold prices experienced volatility, reaching a high of $4,245.22 and a low of $3,997.20 during the week [1]. - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has reduced the short-term appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow indicates a 4.0% growth rate for the U.S. GDP in Q3, although government shutdowns may affect data accuracy [2]. - Personal consumption growth remains stable at an annualized rate of 3.4%, with retail sales showing a slight year-on-year increase [2]. - The unemployment claims decreased slightly to 226,000, indicating a stable labor market [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns about inflation, leading to a decrease in interest rate cut expectations for December [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in December has dropped from 70% to below 50%, influenced by internal voting tendencies within the FOMC [3]. - The Fed's decision-making process is shifting towards a more collective approach rather than being dominated by the chair [3]. Group 4: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks' gold purchases reached 220 tons in Q3 2025, a 30% increase from the previous quarter, with Brazil and South Korea showing significant buying activity [4]. - China's central bank continues to increase its gold reserves, reaching 74.09 million ounces by the end of October, marking the twelfth consecutive month of increases [4]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook for Gold - In the long term, the demand for gold as a safe asset is expected to rise due to challenges to the U.S. dollar credit system and ongoing geopolitical tensions [7]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally may position gold as a new pricing anchor, enhancing its upward momentum [7]. - The Fed's potential rate cut cycle, influenced by economic resilience and inflation, may extend the window for bullish gold positions [7].