创新药板块调整后何去何从？ 泓德基金操昭煦：政策与出海双轮驱动，创新药板块估值具备吸引力

Core Insights - The innovative drug sector has gained market attention since May due to dual drivers of policy and industry, with the completion of the 2025 National Medical Insurance Drug Directory negotiations and the introduction of the first version of the commercial insurance innovative drug directory opening new payment pathways for high-priced innovative drugs [1] - The shift in China's innovative drug export model from "license-out" to "global MNC-led development" is prompting a deeper focus on clinical validation and global collaboration rather than just business development expectations [1] - The innovative drug sector experienced its first mid-term correction in October, attributed to previous rapid gains and a shift of active funds to other sectors, but signs of capital return were noted towards the end of October [1][2] Market Performance - Approximately 90% of actively managed pharmaceutical funds are concentrated in the innovative drug and CXO sectors, indicating a significant compression of allocations to other pharmaceutical sub-sectors [2] - From September to mid-October, the AI-related sector saw a 30% increase, while the innovative drug sector declined over 20%, widening the performance gap to 50-60 percentage points [2] - With the end of the third-quarter report disclosures and the arrival of an earnings vacuum period, the innovative drug sector is expected to regain attention due to its high industry prosperity [2] Future Drivers - The current innovative drug market is primarily driven by capital rather than short-term fundamentals, with a strong industry performance in October not translating into stock price increases due to reduced capital [3] - Long-term fundamentals and industry trends remain the core support for the sector, with a 20% correction from September highs indicating that valuations are now at relatively cheap levels [3] - The next few years are expected to see more significant licensing transactions between Chinese companies and multinational pharmaceutical companies, with increased international market validation of products [3] Sector Focus - The innovative drug sector can be categorized into four main therapeutic areas: oncology, metabolic diseases, autoimmune diseases, and neurological and cardiovascular diseases, with oncology currently leading in licensing transactions [6][7] - The metabolic field, particularly weight loss drugs, is highlighted as a significant market, while autoimmune diseases represent a strong commercial model for chronic conditions [7] - The neurological and cardiovascular sectors are emerging as important innovative directions, particularly for aging-related chronic diseases [7] Investment Considerations - The medical device sector is viewed as a good long-term investment, requiring companies to establish overseas channels independently, unlike the innovative drug sector which can leverage multinational partnerships for quicker international expansion [8] - The Chinese traditional medicine industry is expected to face increased market competition post-2024, following a period of special policy protection, which may test its resilience [9] - AI in healthcare is seen as a promising area, with potential applications in medical devices leading the way, although direct consumer applications may take longer to develop [10][11] Market Dynamics - The differences between A-share and Hong Kong stock markets in terms of liquidity and investment characteristics have diminished, with both markets currently exhibiting strong liquidity [12] - Key factors for future investment strategies include valuation levels, industry trends, and overall market conditions, with current valuations in the innovative drug sector considered relatively cheap [12][13] - The industry trend is strong, but historical patterns suggest that market performance may outpace actual developments, leading to potential bubble risks [13]