Oil Prices Slip as Critical Russian Port Comes Back Online

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have declined in early Asian trading due to the resumption of crude loadings at the Russian export hub of Novorossiysk, following a two-day suspension [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Brent crude futures fell by 64 cents to $63.75 per barrel, while WTI crude futures decreased by 66 cents to $59.43 per barrel [1] - Last week's rally of over 2% for both benchmarks was driven by disruptions at Novorossiysk and a neighboring terminal operated by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium [2] - The resumption of loading operations at Novorossiysk has eased immediate supply pressure, as confirmed by industry sources and supported by data from LSEG [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian oil infrastructure, exemplified by an attack on the Ryazan refinery [3] - The market is facing a growing perception of oversupply, largely influenced by OPEC+ output decisions [3] Group 3: Sanctions and Production Activity - Western sanctions against Russian oil firms like Lukoil and Rosneft are expected to intensify after November 21, with U.S. officials considering penalties for countries engaging with Russia [4] - U.S. rig counts increased by three to 417 in the week ending November 14, indicating a modest rise in upstream activity [4] Group 4: Supply Vulnerabilities - Despite the return of exports at Novorossiysk alleviating immediate supply threats, underlying vulnerabilities persist due to ongoing attacks on Russian infrastructure, sanctions effects, and OPEC+ production strategies [5]