Bitcoin Falls Harder Than Tech as Nasdaq Link Tightens and Skew Turns Negative

Core Insights - Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 Index has surged to approximately 0.80, the highest level since 2022 and the second-strongest in the past decade, indicating a shift towards behaving like a high-beta technology asset rather than a stable store of value [2][3] - The correlation with traditional safe-haven assets like gold has dropped to nearly zero, challenging the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" [1][3] Correlation Dynamics - Bitcoin's correlation with equities turned positive in 2020, generally moving in the same direction as the Nasdaq, with a five-year correlation now at 0.54 [3] - The quality of this correlation has deteriorated into a bearish skew, meaning Bitcoin tends to fall harder when equities decline and participates weakly during market upswings [4][5] Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - The "pain gap" has increased to levels not seen since late 2022, leading to Bitcoin underperforming in risk-on environments and overreacting in risk-off scenarios [5] - Investor focus has shifted towards equities, particularly mega-cap tech, absorbing risk-on flows that previously went into crypto, resulting in Bitcoin reacting as a high-beta asset rather than a standalone narrative [6][7]