存储价格攀升冲击消费市场，机构下调明年智能手机等出货预期

Core Insights - The price increase of various storage products is impacting the downstream consumer market, leading to a collective price hike for new mid-to-high-end smartphones in China, prompting institutions to revise down their global smartphone and laptop shipment forecasts for 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Market Forecast Adjustments - TrendForce has downgraded the global smartphone shipment forecast for 2026 from a growth of 0.1% to a decline of 2%, and the laptop shipment forecast from a growth of 1.7% to a decline of 2.4% [1] - The ongoing inflation and strong upward cycle of memory prices are expected to further pressure the production and shipment forecasts if supply-demand imbalances worsen [1] Group 2: Cost Structure and Pricing Impact - The combined cost of DRAM and NAND Flash is projected to increase the overall BOM cost of devices by approximately 5% to 7% in 2026, which will particularly affect low-end smartphone models [2][3] - The share of memory components in the BOM cost for laptops is expected to rise from about 10%-18% to over 20% due to significant price increases [2] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The anticipated increase in laptop prices by 5% to 15% in 2026 is likely to create substantial pressure on demand, with consumers potentially delaying upgrades or shifting to the second-hand market [3] - The mid-range market may experience a significant slowdown in upgrade momentum, as both enterprise and household users are inclined to extend the lifecycle of their devices [3] - The monitor market, while less directly impacted by memory price increases, may still face challenges if overall PC retail prices rise significantly, leading to a forecasted decline in annual monitor shipments from a slight increase of 0.1% to a decrease of 0.4% [3]