锌：结构≠方向

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic smelting plants have limited production cuts this year, leading to persistent oversupply expectations, while seasonal demand is significantly declining, resulting in passive inventory accumulation [1][2] - The supply side shows that despite high production from domestic smelting plants, there is a shortage in the mining sector, with expectations of significant production cuts in the first quarter of next year due to low processing fees and winter storage [1][2] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by mixed signals, with the U.S. ending a government shutdown and injecting liquidity, but facing hawkish Federal Reserve signals and concerns over AI bubble risks affecting market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The monthly balance sheet indicates that total production is expected to fluctuate, with a projected output of 52.22 million tons in January 2025, decreasing to 48.10 million tons in February, and then gradually increasing [3] - The overall consumption is projected to be 54.59 million tons in January 2025, with a slight increase in subsequent months, indicating a potential recovery in demand [3] - The production and consumption year-on-year comparisons show a decline in production by 7.90% in January 2025, but a recovery in consumption by 1.90% in the same month [3] Group 3 - Recent data from Peru shows a 13% month-on-month decrease in zinc concentrate production for September 2025, while year-to-date production has increased by 17.5% [9] - Domestic zinc concentrate production in October was reported at 330,800 tons, reflecting a 5.18% month-on-month increase and a 12.33% year-on-year increase, slightly above expectations [9] - The import and export dynamics indicate a significant increase in imports, with September 2025 imports reaching 505,400 tons, a 24.94% year-on-year increase [12] Group 4 - The weekly operational rates for downstream zinc processing enterprises are at a historical low of 47.38%, indicating weak demand and passive inventory accumulation [25] - The weekly operating rate for galvanizing enterprises has increased to 57.59%, but overall demand remains subdued, limiting recovery [28] - The overall inventory levels for zinc ingots are high, with a reported total of 100,900 tons as of November 14, indicating continued accumulation despite seasonal demand pressures [44]