Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao·2025-11-17 12:08Core Insights - Lithium carbonate futures have reached a new high of 95,200 yuan/ton, with predictions of prices potentially exceeding 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton due to heightened market sentiment and demand [1][2] - The lithium carbonate price has increased nearly 30% since mid-October, driven by strong demand from the energy storage and electric vehicle sectors [2][3] - The supply-demand dynamics indicate a potential surplus of around 200,000 tons in 2025, but demand could grow significantly, leading to a more balanced market by 2026 [2][3] Price Trends - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 yuan/ton and 100,000 yuan/ton in the medium to long term, with 70,000 yuan/ton being a cost support level and 100,000 yuan/ton reflecting the price level for Australian mines [6][7] - The current price surge is supported by tight supply conditions, with domestic production and operational rates still constrained [4][5] Demand and Supply Analysis - Global lithium carbonate demand is projected to reach 155,000 tons in 2025, with a potential increase to 190,000 tons by 2026, while supply capacity is expected to grow by approximately 25,000 tons [2][3] - The recovery of lithium production in regions like Jiangxi is slower than anticipated, contributing to supply tightness [3][4] - The global energy storage market is expected to be a significant demand driver, with a projected growth of around 63% in 2025 [7]