比特币24小时跌至9.3万美元、回吐年内全部涨幅，长期逻辑仍待验证

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, is attributed to multiple pressures from macroeconomic expectations, funding conditions, and trading sentiment, leading to a significant drop in risk appetite among investors [4][5][6]. Market Performance - On November 17, Bitcoin's price fell to a low of $93,714, erasing all gains made in 2023, with a market capitalization loss of approximately $600 billion since its peak in October [1][3]. - Ethereum also experienced a decline, dropping below $3,200, with a 7-day decrease of 11.38% [3][4]. - Other cryptocurrencies, such as XRP, BNB, and Solana, also faced varying degrees of decline [3][4]. Market Pressures - The decline is not due to a single event but rather a combination of macroeconomic uncertainties, funding pressures, and weakened trading sentiment [4][5]. - There is a lack of consensus regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction, leading to fluctuating expectations for interest rate cuts, which has negatively impacted risk assets [4]. - The Bitcoin spot ETF, which had previously shown strong performance, has seen continuous net outflows since September, contributing to the decline in market liquidity [4][5]. Trading Environment - The market is experiencing heightened vulnerability due to a significant liquidation event on October 11, which has left investors cautious [5][6]. - High leverage levels and fluctuating investor sentiment have made the market more susceptible to liquidity shocks [5][6]. - Recent data indicates that over 230,000 trading accounts were liquidated in a 24-hour period, amounting to over $1 billion, primarily affecting Bitcoin and major altcoin contracts [6]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term volatility, the long-term narrative for Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks remains intact, but it requires time to establish itself as a mature asset class [8]. - Key variables influencing future market direction include the improvement of ETF channels, clarity in global regulatory environments, and sustained demand for on-chain finance and cross-border payments [8]. - Analysts suggest that while recent declines may correct excessive risk appetite and valuation deviations, the structural vulnerabilities of the crypto market compared to traditional financial assets still pose significant risks [8].