智通财经网·2025-11-17 13:08Core Viewpoint - The battery materials sector, particularly lithium hexafluorophosphate, is experiencing a significant market upturn, comparable to the storage chip market, driven by rising prices of electrolytes and lithium hexafluorophosphate [2] Part 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - After four years of stagnation, the lithium hexafluorophosphate industry is seeing a positive shift, with supply expected to grow by 9% year-on-year in FY2026, while demand is projected to increase by 31%, primarily due to a 45% growth in energy storage battery demand [3] Part 2: Industry Trends - The overall operating rate for the lithium hexafluorophosphate industry is expected to rise to 81% in FY2026, up from 51% in FY2024 and 68% in FY2025 [4] - The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is forecasted to reach 100,000 yuan per ton in FY2026, a 48% increase from 67,500 yuan per ton in FY2025 [4] - Market concentration is anticipated to increase, with the top five companies expected to hold a 75% market share by FY2028, up from 68% in FY2024 [4] Part 3: Market Concerns - The visibility of improved supply and demand dynamics for lithium hexafluorophosphate is high, with a convincing rationale [5] - Concerns regarding the potential impact of solid-state batteries on the demand for electrolytes and lithium hexafluorophosphate are noted, but large-scale commercialization of solid-state batteries is not expected to exert significant pressure on industry demand in the short term [5] Company Analysis: Leading Firms - Dofluorid: - Positioned as the second-largest producer of lithium hexafluorophosphate globally, with nominal capacity expected to reach 65,000 tons per year by the end of 2024 [7] - Plans to shift its battery strategy from square to cylindrical batteries, aiming for 120 GWh capacity by 2027, with a focus on household energy storage and two-wheeler battery replacement [7] - Tinci Materials: - The global leader in electrolytes, with a projected nominal capacity of 1.3 million tons per year by 2025 and a market share of 30% [8] - Expected to increase its lithium hexafluorophosphate capacity to 110,000 tons per year by 2025, with a significant rise in operating rates from 60% in 2024 to 90% in 2026 [8] - A potential net profit increase of approximately 4% is anticipated for every 1,000 yuan per ton increase in processing fees or average selling prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate [8]