星展银行：2026年全球经济增长路径分化 亚洲彰显韧性

Core Viewpoint - The report by DBS Bank highlights that the global economy is on different development paths, with Asia and ASEAN showing strong economic resilience despite a slowdown in growth rates [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The US economy is projected to slow from a growth rate of 1.9% in 2025 to 1.5% in 2026, with no recession risk but indicating that the best times are over [2]. - China's GDP growth is expected to moderate from 5.0% to 4.5% in 2026, focusing on quality-driven growth, particularly in high-tech manufacturing sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy, while real estate remains a weak point [2]. - The Eurozone and Japan are forecasted to grow at rates of 1.0% and 0.5% respectively in 2026 [2]. - ASEAN's overall growth rate is expected to reach 4.1% in 2026, with Singapore's GDP growth projected to decline from 4.0% in 2025 to 1.8% in 2026, driven by technology investment and digitalization [2]. Trade Dynamics - The report emphasizes the strengthening trend of "Trade Outside the United States" (TOTUS), which has helped Asian economies withstand shocks, as evidenced by China's 9% export growth to regions outside the US despite an 18% decline in exports to the US [1]. Market Strategy - The report adopts a bearish stance on the US dollar, describing it as a "lame duck" due to political uncertainties and the end of quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve, which diminishes the dollar's premium [3]. - In the commodities sector, the report is optimistic about copper prices, driven by structural demand from energy transition and AI revolution, alongside supply disruptions [3].