美农报告即将公布 豆粕价格或偏强震荡运行

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming USDA supply and demand report is expected to provide critical market guidance, with soybean meal prices likely to experience strong fluctuations due to various factors including cost support and inventory pressures [1][2][4] Market Overview - As of November 17, the main soybean meal contract closed at 3043 CNY/ton, having risen nearly 9% from a low of 2852 CNY/ton since late October [1] - The average price of soybean meal in China as of November 13 was 3072 CNY/ton, an increase of 39 CNY/ton from the end of the previous month [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of raw soybeans is currently abundant, allowing upstream enterprises to maintain high operating levels, resulting in a stable supply of soybean meal [3] - As of the first week of November, soybean meal inventory at domestic crushing enterprises was 963,000 tons, still above levels from previous years despite a decline from the year's peak [3] Price Trends and Expectations - The market anticipates a downward adjustment in U.S. soybean yield estimates, with the average forecast dropping from 53.5 bushels per acre in September to 53.1 bushels per acre [3] - Domestic soybean meal prices are expected to remain stable with limited fluctuations, supported by cost factors and easing supply pressures, with a projected price range of 3040 CNY/ton to 3150 CNY/ton by the end of December [4]