高库存压制 甲醇近十周累跌超400元

Core Viewpoint - The chemical products sector, particularly methanol, has been the weakest performer in the domestic commodity market over the past two months, with methanol futures contracts experiencing a continuous decline and reaching a new low since July 2023 [1] Group 1: Supply and Inventory - High inventory pressure is the main reason for the continuous decline in methanol prices, with port inventories reaching multi-year highs [2] - As of November 13, China's methanol production capacity utilization rate was 87.08%, with port inventory totaling 1.5436 million tons, an increase of 56,500 tons from the previous week [2] - The supply pressure is expected to increase as domestic methanol production facilities resume operations and import shipments arrive, particularly in the East China region [2] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Demand from traditional downstream sectors is expected to decline as they enter the off-season, leading to reduced procurement of raw materials [2] - The profitability of the polyolefin sector remains under pressure, which may further lower operational rates and reduce demand for methanol [2] - Despite no significant drop in pre-sale orders from methanol companies, year-on-year demand remains weak, especially with cautious purchasing from inland regions [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts generally believe that the weak methanol market is likely to continue due to high inventory levels and insufficient demand [3] - The ability for methanol prices to rebound will depend on inventory changes and production facility adjustments [3] - In the short term, the methanol market is expected to maintain a loose supply-demand balance, with a focus on monitoring port inventory changes and the operational status of MTO enterprises [3]