Expect India's GDP to grow around 7-7.5% over the next two quarters: HSBC

Economic Growth Forecast - The GDP growth forecast for India is projected to be around 7% to 7.5% for the upcoming quarters, driven by factors such as GST cuts and strong retail demand [1][2][3] - The September GDP data is expected to show strong performance due to the positive impact of GST cuts, with manufacturers ramping up production quickly [2][3] Government Spending and Tax Revenue - There are concerns that consumer spending may soften in the March quarter as the initial boost from GST cuts subsides, particularly after the Diwali season [4] - The government is facing challenges with tax revenues, which have not been strong, leading to potential cuts in expenditure to balance the budget [4] US-India Trade Deal - The US-India trade deal negotiations are reportedly in an advanced state, with expectations that India has opened its non-food agricultural sector to US imports [6][7] - Analysts are divided on the potential impact of the trade deal on Indian farmers, but there is optimism regarding domestic reforms [5][6] Market Reactions - Markets have partially priced in a reduction of tariffs from 50% to around 25%, but a more significant positive reaction may require tariffs to be closer to 15% to 20% [7][8] - There is cautious optimism regarding the trade deal, with the understanding that unexpected shifts can occur [9][10]