Should You Buy, Hold or Sell Target Stock Before Q3 Earnings?

Core Insights - Target Corporation (TGT) is set to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on November 19, with investors weighing the decision to buy or hold the stock ahead of the report [1] Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TGT's fiscal third-quarter revenues is $25.36 billion, reflecting a 1.2% decline from the previous year [3] - The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings has decreased by 2 cents to $1.76 per share, indicating a 4.9% decline from the same quarter last year [3] - Target has a trailing four-quarter average negative earnings surprise of 8.4%, with the last quarter's earnings missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.9% [4] Sales and Earnings Estimates - Current quarter sales estimate is $25.36 billion, with a year-over-year decline of 1.2% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimate for the current quarter is $1.76, down 4.86% from the previous year [6] - Comparable sales are expected to decline by 1.4% due to soft traffic and spending [13] Market Position and Strategy - Target has established a strong retail position through a diversified business model and omnichannel strategy, but is currently facing challenges such as weakening consumer demand and margin compression [2] - The company’s integrated strategy, including digital transformation and enhancements in operational processes, is expected to support performance despite a tough retail environment [10][11] Valuation Analysis - Target's stock is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.39, significantly below the industry average of 29.89, suggesting it may be undervalued [15] - Compared to peers like Kroger, Walmart, and Ross Stores, Target's valuation appears more attractive, with a Value Score of A [16] Stock Performance - Over the past three months, Target's stock has declined by 14.3%, underperforming the industry, which saw a decline of 2.1% [17] - In contrast, Walmart's stock has increased by 1.8%, and Ross Stores has rallied by 9.9% during the same period [19] Investor Sentiment - Target's upcoming earnings report presents a mix of strategic momentum and uncertainty, leading to a cautious stance among investors [21] - While the stock's valuation is appealing, the lack of a clear upside surprise potential may lead prospective investors to remain on the sidelines [22]