魏建国：中国经济下一步的增长红利是服务业升级和国际化，要扩大新型消费比重

Core Points - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes significantly increasing the resident consumption rate as a primary goal, focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [1] - The plan proposes a combination of investments in goods and people, increasing public service spending, and removing unreasonable restrictions on consumption in sectors like housing and automobiles [1][4] Economic Growth Targets - The reasonable economic growth rate for China during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is projected to be between 4.5% and 5.5%, considering the large economic base and potential growth rate [4][5] - The plan aims to align with the long-term goal of achieving a per capita GDP comparable to that of moderately developed countries by 2035 [4] Resident Consumption Rate - To address the low resident consumption rate, strategies should focus on expanding the middle-income group and increasing public service spending to enhance consumer confidence [5][6] - New consumption patterns should prioritize human-centered consumption, with a focus on sectors like the silver economy, infant products, and women's economy [6] Role of Real Estate - The real estate market is expected to experience slight growth over the next five years, with its stability being crucial for consumer confidence and financial system stability [7][8] - The removal of unreasonable restrictions on housing and automobiles is aimed at releasing suppressed consumer demand, which is vital for economic growth [7] Consumption, Investment, and Export Dynamics - Consumption is projected to play a dual role as both a "ballast" and a "main engine" for economic growth, with expectations that it will contribute over 60% to GDP growth [12] - Investment will serve as an "incubator" and "accelerator," focusing on optimizing economic structure and transitioning to high-quality development [13] - Exports will act as a "stabilizer," maintaining their importance despite potential fluctuations, supported by China's comprehensive industrial system [12][13] Service Industry Development - The shift in focus towards expanding the service sector reflects a strategic change, with the service industry expected to drive future economic growth and competitiveness [19][20] - The growing middle-income group and the increasing share of services in GDP highlight the need for improved service quality and international engagement in service management [20]