Traders bet Supreme Court won't back Trump on tariffs, dimming rebate hopes

Group 1 - Traders on the prediction market Kalshi show low confidence in new stimulus checks, with odds of "tariff rebate" payments at just 5%, down from 13.4% earlier this month [1] - The total trading volume on Kalshi is over $451,000, indicating limited market activity regarding stimulus checks [1] - President Trump has suggested that tariff revenue could fund $2,000 checks for Americans and help reduce the national debt of $38 trillion [2] Group 2 - There is a bearish outlook on stimulus checks, with skepticism reflected in bets on Kalshi and Polymarket regarding the Supreme Court's support for Trump's tariff plan [3] - The probability of the Supreme Court siding with Trump has decreased to 22%, down 23 points after oral arguments indicated skepticism from justices [5] - The sentiment on prediction markets shows a 24% chance of Trump winning on tariff issues following the Supreme Court's oral arguments [6] Group 3 - The Supreme Court is set to weigh the legality of Trump's tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act on November 5, leaving the future of his trade agenda uncertain [6][8] - Trump has warned that the U.S. would be "virtually defenseless against other countries," emphasizing the importance of the case for the country [8]