收入增速创年内新高、支出增速回落：2025年1—10月财政账本释放哪些信号？

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to October 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.649 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with tax revenue growing by 1.7% and non-tax revenue declining by 3.1% [1] - The general public budget expenditure for the same period was 22.5825 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2%, with central government expenditure increasing by 6.3% and local government expenditure rising by 1.2% [1] - The data indicates a trend of accelerating revenue growth while expenditure growth is slowing, with the revenue growth rate reaching a new high for the year [1] Revenue Analysis - In October, the national general public budget revenue grew by 3.2% year-on-year, supported significantly by tax revenue, while non-tax revenue saw an expanded decline [2] - Tax revenue in October increased by 8.6%, marking the second-highest level of the year, while non-tax revenue fell by 33.0%, indicating a slowdown in the activation of state-owned assets and a reduction in enterprise-related fees [2] - Major tax categories showed growth, with domestic VAT at 58.858 billion yuan (up 4%), domestic consumption tax at 14.39 billion yuan (up 2.4%), corporate income tax at 39.182 billion yuan (up 1.9%), and personal income tax at 13.363 billion yuan (up 11.5%) [2] Expenditure Analysis - Key expenditure categories included education spending at 34.117 billion yuan (up 4.7%), social security and employment at 37.742 billion yuan (up 9.3%), and health spending at 16.877 billion yuan (up 2.4%) [3] - A notable decline was observed in urban and rural community spending (down 7.3%) and agricultural, forestry, and water spending (down 11.7%) [3] - The slowdown in expenditure growth was attributed to previous rapid spending and a high base from the previous year, with October's expenditure showing a year-on-year decline of 9.8% [3] Government Fund Revenue - Government fund revenue showed a significant decline, with a cumulative growth rate of -2.8% from January to October, indicating a worsening trend compared to the previous -0.5% [4] - The drop in land revenue was linked to a cooling land market, with land transfer income in October at 268 billion yuan, down from 303.9 billion yuan, and a cumulative growth rate of -7.4% [5] Special Debt Issuance - The issuance of new local government special bonds has slowed, with 3.66 trillion yuan issued from January to September, representing an 83.2% progress rate, lower than the previous year's 6.4% [6] - As of November 16, the total issuance of new special bonds reached 4.15 trillion yuan, with a completion rate of 94.3%, indicating a need for acceleration in the remaining months of the year [6]