专访商务部原副部长魏建国：中国经济下一步的增长红利是服务业升级和国际化 要扩大新型消费比重

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes significantly increasing the resident consumption rate as a primary goal, focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption through various new proposals [1]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumption - The reasonable growth range for China's economy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is estimated to be between 4.5% and 5.5%, considering the current economic scale and potential growth rate [2][3]. - The plan highlights the need for a flexible approach to economic growth, with a lower limit to ensure employment and a higher limit to prevent inflation and promote structural adjustments [3]. Group 2: Enhancing Resident Consumption Rate - To address the low resident consumption rate, solutions should be sought from both the income and supply sides, including expanding the middle-income group and increasing public service spending [3][4]. - Three key actions are necessary to enhance resident consumption: increasing the share of new consumption types, enriching consumption scenarios, and ensuring the implementation of national policies to stimulate consumption [4]. Group 3: Real Estate and Automotive Markets - The plan proposes removing unreasonable restrictions on automotive and housing consumption, as both sectors have significant economic impacts and can stimulate related industries [5][6]. - The real estate market is expected to see slight growth over the next five years, with its stability being crucial for consumer confidence and financial system stability [7]. Group 4: Role of Consumption, Investment, and Exports - Consumption is projected to play a dual role as both a "ballast" and a "main engine" for economic growth, with expectations that its contribution to GDP growth will exceed 60% [12][13]. - Investment will shift focus from total volume to structural optimization, supporting high-quality development in sectors like high-end manufacturing and technology [13]. - Exports will serve as a stabilizer, maintaining their importance due to China's comprehensive industrial system, despite potential fluctuations [12][14]. Group 5: Service Industry and Market Opening - The emphasis on expanding the service industry as a key area for market opening indicates a strategic shift towards enhancing service sector competitiveness and internationalization [20][21]. - The growing middle-income group and the increasing share of services in GDP highlight the need for improved service quality and management practices to meet consumer demands [21].