智通财经网·2025-11-17 15:06Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has significantly downgraded the ratings of major hardware manufacturers including Dell Technologies, HP, and HPE, citing increasing pressure on profit margins due to soaring memory prices and weakening non-AI hardware demand [1] Group 1: Memory Price Impact - The industry is currently experiencing a "memory supercycle," with NAND and DRAM spot prices rising approximately 50% to 300% over the past six months [1] - Historical data indicates that hardware OEM gross margins typically decline 60 basis points within 6 to 12 months after memory costs begin to rise, contrary to market expectations of slight expansion [1] Group 2: Dell Technologies - Morgan Stanley downgraded Dell's rating from "Overweight" to "Underweight," lowering the target price from $144 to $110, due to the impact of rising memory costs and structurally low profit margins in AI servers [2] - The forecast for Dell's fiscal year 2027 gross margin has been significantly reduced to 18.2%, down 220 basis points from previous estimates, with a 12% decrease in earnings per share (EPS) projections [2] Group 3: HP Inc. - HP's rating has been downgraded from "Equal Weight" to "Underweight," with the target price reduced from $26 to $24, as rising DRAM and NAND prices are expected to squeeze profit margins in its personal systems business [3] - The forecast for HP's fiscal year 2026 gross margin has been lowered by 90 basis points to 19.7%, which is 130 basis points below market consensus, despite an increase in revenue expectations to $56.5 billion [3] Group 4: HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise) - HPE's rating has been downgraded from "Overweight" to "Equal Weight," with the target price decreased from $28 to $25, as the integration of Juniper Networks is expected to limit overall profitability amid rising component costs [4] - The forecast for HPE's fiscal year 2026 gross margin has been cut by 260 basis points to 32.9%, with EPS revised down from $2.52 to $2.18 [4] Group 5: Industry Outlook - Dell and HP are identified as the most vulnerable U.S. hardware companies to the impact of rising memory prices, appearing at the top of Morgan Stanley's "most vulnerable list" [5] - The firm emphasizes a preference for technology companies with higher diversification or software revenue, warning that tight memory supply and high prices will pose greater downside risks for the industry until 2026 [5]