大摩示警存储器“超级循环”将重创OEM毛利率

Core Viewpoint - The global storage market is experiencing an unprecedented "super cycle," with NAND and DRAM spot prices increasing by 50% and 300% respectively within six months, which is expected to significantly impact the gross margins and profitability of hardware OEMs and ODMs [1] Group 1: Price Trends - NAND and DRAM prices have surged dramatically, with increases of 50% and 300% in a short period [1] - Historical data indicates that after a rise in memory prices, gross margins typically begin to contract after 6 to 12 months [1] Group 2: Historical Context - During the previous cycle from 2016 to 2018, NAND and DRAM prices rose by 80% to 90%, leading to insufficient price increases by OEMs to offset rising costs, resulting in a decline in gross margins for several quarters [1] - In 2017, the median gross margin decreased by 70 basis points, followed by an additional decline of 20 basis points in 2018 [1] Group 3: Current Cycle Differences - This current storage cycle differs from previous ones in two significant ways: the speed of price increases is faster, and the duration may be longer [1] - The environment for corporate hardware spending is not as robust as in past cycles, which may exacerbate the impact on OEMs and ODMs [1]