比特币为何涨不动了？

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has fallen below the $100,000 mark, erasing over 30% of its gains for the year, with a recent low of $93,778.6, indicating a significant market correction driven by various macroeconomic factors and changes in investor sentiment [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The recent decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, leading to a synchronized pressure on global risk assets [2]. - The liquidity in the market has decreased, exacerbating the downward trend, as many exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen capital outflows, and long-term holders are cashing out profits [2][5]. - The psychological barrier of $100,000 has led to increased selling pressure, with institutional funds withdrawing and a lack of new liquidity entering the market [2][5]. Historical Context - Bitcoin has experienced multiple corrections since first surpassing $100,000, with significant drops occurring in early 2025, influenced by geopolitical concerns and security incidents [3]. - The current downturn is seen as a result of compounded factors, including macroeconomic risks, market structure issues, and investor psychology, similar to past market corrections [3][4]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, Bitcoin's long-term potential remains, supported by increasing institutional participation and a healthier market structure [7]. - Analysts suggest that once a substantial interest rate cut cycle begins, Bitcoin could see renewed upward momentum as funds are reallocated across asset classes [7]. - The current liquidity constraints are viewed as a temporary effect from recent market shocks, with the potential for Bitcoin to find a new equilibrium and open up upward price movement in the future [7].