How Strong Is PTON's Free Cash Flow Momentum Heading Into FY26?

Core Insights - Peloton Interactive, Inc. is transitioning into fiscal 2026 with a more credible pathway toward sustained free cash flow, moving from a multi-year restructuring phase to disciplined operating execution [1] - The company raised its full-year free cash flow floor to at least $250 million, indicating increased confidence in cost restructuring and a favorable hardware mix [1][8] - In Q1 fiscal 2026, Peloton generated $67 million in free cash flow, a significant increase from $10 million a year earlier, driven by stronger operating profitability and lower-than-expected tariff rates [2][8] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 reached $118 million, exceeding guidance, supported by timing-related benefits and increased operating leverage [2] - Peloton raised its full-year gross margin outlook to 52%, a 100-basis-point increase, with hardware margins showing structural improvement [3] - The adjusted EBITDA outlook was increased to $425-$475 million, reflecting double-digit improvement despite softer Connected Fitness demand [3] Challenges and Market Dynamics - The recall of 833,000 Original Series Bike+ units is expected to cause modest subscription pauses in Q2, while the Connected Fitness category continues to contract [4] - A larger proportion of rental and secondary-market users may lead to higher churn, although this is partially offset by the increasing tenure of long-standing subscribers [4] Future Outlook - Peloton anticipates a modest gap between adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow for the remainder of the year, aided by low capital intensity and working capital efficiency [5] - The company is positioned to achieve its elevated free cash flow target, potentially allowing for broader capital allocation options once leverage stabilizes [5] Valuation and Market Position - Peloton shares have declined 11.5% over the past three months, compared to a 15.8% decline in the industry [6] - The stock is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 1.25, below the industry average of 2.02 [9] - Earnings per share estimates for fiscal 2026 have increased, projecting a 136.7% year-over-year surge, while industry peers are expected to see lower growth rates [11][13]