MetLife's Drew Matus: It could be risky for the Fed not to cut in December

Economic Outlook - Concerns are rising regarding potential pressures on upper-income consumers, which could lead to risks for the Federal Reserve if they do not cut rates in December [1][18] - The labor market data indicates that upper-income parents are increasingly worried about their children's job prospects, negatively impacting consumer spending as the year ends [3][18] Youth Unemployment - Youth unemployment is currently at approximately 180% of normal levels for the average worker, a significant increase from the historical rate of 150% [6][18] - The rise in youth unemployment is attributed to job displacement caused by advancements in AI, similar to the impact of computers in the past [4][5] AI and Productivity - There is skepticism about the short-term returns on AI investments, with concerns that companies may not hire enough if they do not see the expected benefits [7][9] - Long-term productivity improvements are anticipated, but the transition period may be challenging as organizations adapt to new technologies and cultural changes [8][10][11] Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is advised to focus on short-term growth rather than solely on inflation, suggesting that a rate cut could stimulate economic activity [13][17] - A failure to cut rates in December could negatively impact holiday spending, as market reactions to the Fed's decisions could influence consumer behavior [15][16][18]