Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao·2025-11-17 19:16Core Viewpoint - The explosive growth of the energy storage market has significantly increased the demand for lithium battery materials, leading to a substantial rise in prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium carbonate, making the lithium battery materials sector a standout performer in the A-share market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Demand and Supply - The demand for energy storage has surged, with China's lithium battery shipments reaching 430 GWh in the first three quarters of 2025, exceeding the total for 2024 by 30% [2]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a shipment volume of 165 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 65% [2]. - Major battery manufacturers are operating at full capacity, with some orders extending into early next year, indicating a robust demand across the supply chain [2][3]. Group 2: Price Trends - As of November 17, the price of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices have both surpassed 90,000 yuan per ton, with an increase of over 20,000 yuan in the past month [2]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate had previously dropped to 60,000 yuan per ton due to supply-demand mismatches, but is now recovering as inventory levels decrease rapidly [2][3]. Group 3: Inventory Levels - As of October 30, the total inventory of lithium carbonate in China fell to 130,366 tons, a decrease of 2,292 tons from September, marking the lowest level in nearly three years [3]. - The inventory days have reduced to 32 days, indicating strong terminal replenishment demand [3]. Group 4: Future Projections - Global lithium carbonate demand is projected to reach 1.55 million tons by 2025, with supply at 1.7 million tons, suggesting a tightening supply-demand balance [3]. - If demand growth exceeds 30% next year, prices could potentially rise to 150,000 yuan or even 200,000 yuan per ton [3]. Group 5: Market Sentiment - Most companies in the lithium battery supply chain are optimistic about the growth in energy storage demand and are not overly sensitive to rising material prices [4]. - Companies are currently conducting competitive sales to gauge customer tolerance for price increases, with no significant pushback reported [4]. Group 6: Long-term Outlook - The energy storage market is expected to maintain a high growth trajectory, with an estimated total shipment of 580 GWh for the year, reflecting a growth rate of over 75% [5]. - By 2030, the global cumulative energy storage capacity is anticipated to reach approximately 730 GW/1950 GWh, indicating continued strong growth in the sector [6]. Group 7: Strategic Developments - Leading energy storage companies are securing long-term supply agreements, such as the strategic partnership between Haibo Si Chuang and CATL, which ensures a minimum procurement of 200 GWh from 2026 to 2028 [7]. - Chinese energy storage companies are increasingly capturing international market opportunities, with overseas orders rising by 246% year-on-year in the first half of the year [7].