The data-dependent Fed doesn't have data, expert says

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in making decisions for the upcoming December meeting due to a lack of key economic data caused by the government shutdown [1][3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDP now forecast for Q3 2023 is projected at 4.1%, indicating a strong economic performance [2][3] Federal Reserve Policy - The Fed is described as data-dependent but currently lacks sufficient data, relying instead on private data sources [3][4] - There are mixed signals regarding the labor market, with ADP data showing weakness and consumer sentiment at a three-year low, which could suggest a need for a rate cut [4][5] - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased to about 50%, reflecting uncertainty in policy direction [5][6] Market Dynamics - Institutional investors are pulling back from the market, while retail investors continue to invest, influenced by tax considerations and year-end rebalancing [12] - Mega-cap companies are expected to lead the market, particularly in a tighter credit environment, as they have better access to borrowing [9][10][11]