【财经观察】从“双11”战报看电商消费新趋势

Core Insights - The 17th "Double 11" shopping festival saw significant growth, with Tmall reporting its best growth in four years and JD.com achieving record transaction volumes, with a 40% increase in the number of users placing orders [1][2] - E-commerce platforms are shifting focus from Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) to higher quality metrics such as brand performance and consumer trends, indicating a maturation of the market [1][2] - Experts argue that e-commerce penetration rates do not accurately reflect a country's consumption strength, as they overlook the evolving dynamics between online and offline retail [2][4] E-commerce Trends - The e-commerce penetration rate in China peaked at 27.6% in 2023 but is projected to decline to 26.8% in 2024 and stabilize around 25% in 2025, suggesting a saturation point [2] - The distinction between "far-field e-commerce" (traditional online shopping) and "near-field e-commerce" (instant retail) is becoming more pronounced, with the latter driving growth in local physical stores [3][4] - The U.S. e-commerce penetration is expected to grow from 25% in 2022 to one-third by 2027, but growth is slowing post-pandemic [3] Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are increasingly engaging in "emotional consumption," with a notable rise in spending on trendy toys, outdoor products, and smart devices [5][6] - The "new three items" popular among young consumers include trendy toys, outdoor gear, and smart products, with significant growth in these categories over the past two years [5][6] - Interest-based consumption is on the rise, with platforms like Xianyu reporting substantial growth in categories such as cards and trendy toys, indicating a shift towards personalized and unique products [6][7] Silver Economy - The silver economy is gaining traction, with the elderly population's consumption needs expected to grow significantly, projected to exceed 100 trillion yuan by 2050 [9] - The elderly demographic is increasingly focused on health-related products and services, with a growing interest in travel and leisure activities [9][10] - E-commerce platforms are adapting to cater to the silver population, with a focus on health management and service-oriented offerings [9][10] Service Consumption - The shift towards service consumption is evident, with service spending in China rising from 46.1% in 2024 to 46.8% in the first three quarters of the year, indicating room for further growth [11] - Experts emphasize the importance of understanding diverse consumer experiences and creating unique value propositions to drive growth in both e-commerce and physical retail [11]