中经评论：推动全球金属交易格局走向新平衡

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has decided to suspend all non-USD denominated metal options trading, reflecting the fragility of the current international pricing system dominated by a single currency and market [1][2] Group 1: LME's Decision and Market Impact - The LME's announcement on November 3 indicated that non-USD denominated metal options contracts, such as those in euros and renminbi, lacked liquidity and had higher maintenance costs than benefits, leading to the suspension effective November 10 [1] - Following the announcement, there was a significant market reaction, with Shanghai Futures Exchange's night session metal contracts hitting the upper limit while LME's USD contracts faced rare declines, creating the largest price differential since 1987 [1][3] Group 2: Background and Challenges to the USD System - The decision comes amid unprecedented challenges to the USD system, including a US federal debt exceeding $38 trillion and real yields on US Treasuries failing to cover inflation costs, undermining the attractiveness of USD assets [2] - There is a noticeable trend of foreign central banks diversifying their reserve assets, with increased demand for gold and new multi-lateral payment mechanisms reflecting concerns over the existing clearing system [2] Group 3: Implications for Global Metal Trading - The LME's actions may strengthen the USD's position in the short term but also accelerate the fragmentation of the global metal trading system, increasing exchange rate risks and transaction costs for companies in Europe and Asia [3] - Japanese and German manufacturers, for instance, will face heightened complexity in risk management as they shift to USD contracts, dealing with both metal price and USD exchange rate fluctuations [3] Group 4: Opportunities for Chinese Enterprises - For Chinese companies, the LME's announcement presents both challenges and opportunities, as they may face a shortage of hedging tools and rising costs in the short term [3] - However, China's significant consumption of global copper and control over 55% of electrolytic aluminum capacity provide a natural anchor for renminbi pricing, alongside improvements in financial infrastructure and regional cooperation initiatives like the Belt and Road [3] Group 5: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historically, attempts to enforce a single currency have often backfired, as seen in the 1960s with the UK's strict foreign exchange controls, which inadvertently facilitated the rise of the USD [4] - The overemphasis on the USD system may lead to strong alternative demands, indicating that the transformation of the global metal trading system will require a new balance deeply connected to the real economy [4]